North Korea is unlikely to be near the top of Joe Biden's priorities after he moves in to the White House. He's criticised Trump's summits with Kim Jong-un as a "vanity project", and made it clear that he'd sit face to face with Kim only if the Fat Man was "drawing down" the North's nuclear weapons - not a probable scenario. So, frankly, there would seem to be other more pressing concerns to engage his time and attention.
But, as we know, one of Pyongyang's main foreign policy strategies is to goad its enemies - South Korea of course, and Japan, but particularly the US - with reckless provocations and threats, demanding like a spoilt child that everyone sits up and takes notice. The chances of a provocation soon must now be high: North Korea is struggling with the effects of sanctions, exacerbated by the coronavirus, and the incoming US President is untested and will be keen to show himself different from his predecessor. Trump made lots of noise with his summits with the overweight Supreme Commander, but in the end turned away from any deals. Biden might be different. He might be more amenable to the old pantomime of threats followed by talks followed by agreement to ease sanctions or supply aid or otherwise appease the North Koreans. South Korea's President Moon, who's never seen a chance at appeasing the North that he didn't welcome, would certainly be right on board.
And the North does have a lot of big rockets:
New ICBM presented during the Party Foundation Day parade on Oct. 10. / Image: KCNA
So this latest news from the Daily NK should is a little worrying. It seems that offensive weapons are cheaper than defensive ones, so that's the direction they're taking....on the Korean border:
Following North Korea’s attempt to show off its long-range artillery and medium- and short-ranged super-large multiple rocket launchers during the military parade on Oct. 10, a Daily NK source says North Korea has begun creating units based near the Korean border to operate these weapon systems.
According to a Daily NK military source in North Korea on Tuesday, on Oct. 24 North Korea’s Supreme Command ordered the Central Frontline Rocket Regiment of the Strategic Force Command (Singye, North Hwanghae Province) to increase in size through the organization of two battalions (about 1,500 troops) equipped with new multiple rocket launchers.
The Central Frontline Rocket Regiment is a mechanized firepower unit whose basic means of warfare are North Korea’s medium- and short-range missile systems.
However, the regiment recently deployed 600mm super-large multiple rocket launchers, a high-precision weapon system unlike the unit’s existing missiles. Ultimately, this meant that new units were needed to carry out the Supreme Command’s new operational plan to deploy concentrated firepower along the front.
That is to say, the plan – which calls for strikes on South Korea’s entire capital region around Seoul – is currently underway. “The strategy is to raze enemy strongholds in a short period by concentrating as much firepower as possible,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “With this full-scale unleashing of firepower along the front, the Supreme Command intends to sweep the enemy without giving them time to even open their muzzles.”
It is noteworthy that this runs contrary to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s claim in his Party Foundation Day address last month that North Korea’s “war deterrent” is being developed “not [to be] aimed at others,” but rather “to defend ourselves.”
Another source in the country told Daily NK that under Kim’s direction, the country has been working hard on artillery and missiles, but “it’s true that [the regime] is still only paying attention to ‘offensive capabilities.’” He added, “Frankly, the regime has been weak on building ‘defensive capabilities.’”
North Korea’s military, which has better offensive than defensive capabilities, appears to have adopted a strategy of maximizing destruction by concentrating maximum firepower in the shortest period of time.
The source described the mood in the military, saying that the leadership “also knows that R&D to develop defensive systems requires a lot of money” and that “We have no choice but to pay attention to tactically deploying advanced offensive weapons capable of pin-point strikes.”
This could end badly.
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