As Irina Tsukerman notes, it was very probably China, via Kim Jong-un's recent meeting with President Xi, that's behind this latest charade of pan-Korean friendship.
We've already seen that China has been easing off on the sanctions. Kim has most likely been advised by his big brother in Beijing to start playing a different game if he wants to survive. With all the focus on nuclear weapons, and the fact that his nuclear test site has become unusable, what could be easier than to make the best of it? He can proclaim, to international applause, that the test site will be closed down, and go full on with the charm offensive.
The goal for both China and North Korea is to force the US out of the reckoning - just as the US has withdrawn from the Middle East - and isolate Japan.
The South Koreans, under the hopelessly gullible President Moon, seem to be loving it:
South Korea’s reaction at Kim’s outreach has been passive and submissive. There were no questions asked, no demands put forward. South Korea has agreed to end the war without inquiring in to the fate of all the people enslaved in Kim’s camps. It also has not asked for guarantees of denuclearization or good behavior. The path to reunification remains largely rhetorical; however, the threat of Kim using this occasion to force US troops out of South Korea, thus ensuring a potentially speedy takeover at some point in time when its missiles reach the appropriate capabilities remains real....
The West should not expect an immediate invasion of Seoul. From now on, Pyongyang will be playing a more deliberate, more cautious game. Continuing with his charm offensive, Kim will seep President Moon of the remnants of his political will, slowly bending the entire country, which has grown complacent over the years, and distracted with internal matters, towards supporting a “peace initiative” and moving away from a militant state of mind. South Korea will voluntarily give up US troops, and will voluntarily, step-by-step grant increasing concessions to its neighbor. This will make US involvement in any future confrontations that much more difficult. US will be pushed out of the region, just as it has been increasingly pushed out of the Middle East. Meanwhile, fewer countries will be positioned to oppose China’s incremental encroachment into the South China Sea....
Whatever Kim Jung Un’s real intentions are, he is far more dangerous when quietly backed by China. Emboldened and empowered by US lack of clarity and leadership when it comes to the general interests of that area, Kim Jung Un is looking to reinvent himself as a maturing brotherly country that just wants to talk. And there will be endless rounds of negotiations, to be sure. President Trump will continue to be thanked profusely, even as every practical measure will be taken to make it clear that the United States has no more role to play, and that its presence has grown tiresome and unwelcome. Very soon, the United States will find itself with having no foothold in the region, and will be forced to watched as the parade is passing it by, unable to do anything but issue threats and belated reactions once China – through Kim – sooner or later finally has the confidence to show its real face.
An interesting read.
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