What to make of Kim Jong-un's visit to Beijing? Trump's enthusiasm seems a little misplaced, but perhaps we shouldn't read too much into that. He's got other stuff on his mind at the moment, and anyway, what else is he going to say?
It was a significant move, no doubt, but it's hard to take anything positive from it. The Chinese are clearly signalling that Kim is their ally, and North Korea is their business. This wasn't a clandestine visit, but a proper official meeting - one autocrat warmly welcoming another autocrat.
[Photo: Xinhua]
From South Korea's Chosun Ilbo:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Monday proposed to Chinese President Xi Jinping "phased and simultaneous steps for peace." That sounds suspiciously like the salami-slicing tactics of his father Kim Jong-il of eking out small tit-for-tat concessions to string the international community along.
Wi Sung-lac, a former South Korean representative to six-party talks said, "This shows that North Korea intends to hang on to its nuclear weapons for as long as possible and only consider scrapping them at the very last stage."
Chine quoted Kim as telling Xi, "The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula can be resolved if South Korea and the U.S. respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace."
That seems essentially aimed at easing crippling international sanctions for little concrete effort in return. North Korea has repeatedly reneged on previous pledges after receiving the rewards, ditching promises to let international inspectors check its nuclear facilities and others.
Kang Jun-young at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies said, "If you get mired in the 'phased' approach, you just end up repeating past failures in negotiations."
In other words, it's the same old story. North Korea will prevaricate, will stall, will maybe even make promises - and in the end will do absolutely nothing about reining in its nuclear programme.
It's hit badly by the increasingly effective sanctions, no doubt, but the nuclear weapons will go only when the Kim regime goes. And, whatever Xi Jinping may or may not have offered by way of sanctions relief, it's clear that Pyongyang has Beijing right behind it. They're united by the single aim of removing US influence from the area.
Roger Boyes in the Times (£):
Mr Kim’s interests run deeper, however, than a bit of foreign adulation. They go beyond the easing of sanctions, too. His main aim appears to be to guarantee the long-term survival of the Kim dynasty. That means ultimately finding a way to evict American troops from South Korea and Japan. This strategic goal is shared by China, which wants to edge the United States out of the Far East.
Both Mr Xi and Mr Kim are presenting themselves as willing negotiators in a process of jaw-jaw, rather than war-war. The summit between Mr Trump and Mr Kim, scheduled for May, is supposed to usher in many months of talks that will make the prospect of conflict in the East recede.
Mr Kim is almost certainly intent on stringing along the Americans for as long as possible and on using the time to speed up nuclear research. Mr Kim’s offer of denuclearisation suits China: it could be a means to removing the American-made terminal high altitude area defence (Thaad) missile system from the South and cutting the US troop deployment there....
China, which has been urged by the Americans to pile pressure on the North Korean leadership, has always had its eye more on South Korea. If it can woo the country away from its alignment with the US, then it will have won a real prize. China will have established itself as the more powerful, with a magnetic appeal for America’s erstwhile allies. Mr Trump should proceed with caution.
Except - I would add - it's not just survival that Kim's after. The whole thrust of North Korean ideology has always been, and remains, unification of the Korean peninsula...on their terms. With the appeasement-minded President Moon in the Blue House in Seoul, such an outcome has never looked more possible.
The appointment of John Bolton as Trump's new national security adviser, though, puts a new spin on all this. It's not mentioned in any of the pieces I've read, but it's well known that Bolton takes a hawkish view over North Korea. I wonder if Xi and Kim had this in mind. One of the big questions, as Trump's meeting with Kim approaches, is the extent to which Trump will follow Bolton's advice.
[For a debate over Bolton and North Korea, see this exchange from 2012 between Stephan Haggard, and Josh Stanton of One Free Korea.]
Interesting & highly relevant piece here from the Telegraph, which (surprisingly, given how debased it is in other areas) often publishes good stuff on NK: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/29/china-turns-screw-north-korea-cutting-petrol-supply-report-says/
It looks as if KJU may have felt he had no alternative but to go to Beijing.
Posted by: Richard Powell | March 30, 2018 at 11:26 AM
Yes, interesting. Thanks.
Posted by: Mick H | March 30, 2018 at 02:39 PM