Last week Christopher Hitchens reiterated his view that although the rhetoric for popular consumption by the Muslim masses is all about Israel and the Jews, the real threat posed by a nuclear Iran is to the neighbouring Arab states:
It seems to me obvious that the Iranian mullahs do not desire to immolate their profitable system of corruption and exploitation in a last-ditch fight with states that can actually obliterate them. There may be some Mahdi-fanciers who dream of this apocalypse, and they should not be completely discounted. But what could be clearer in the medium run than that Tehran wants the bomb in order to exert nuclear blackmail against other Muslims?
Now here's a piece by Ryan Mauro (via) on the unlikely alliance between Israel and the Arab states against Iran:
The Arab governments are deathly afraid of a nuclear bomb in the hands of Iran, even if their populations are too focused on the so-called evils of the U.S. and Israel to see it. They may be unsure if Iran will actually use the bomb, but they surely know that the possession of it will enable Iran to take advantage of their fragility in ways thus far unseen.
There are consistent rumors of intelligence gathering and joint contingency planning between Israel and various Arab states; rumors that are probably based in reality. Reports that the Saudis have given Israel permission to use its airspace to attack Iran refuse to go away, despite the predictable denials of officials on both sides. The Egyptian government has openly confirmed that they allowed two Israeli missile boats and a Dolphin-class nuclear-capable submarine to pass through the Suez Canal in July 2009 in an exercise clearly aimed at Iran.
In March, an Israeli member of parliament said that a “wall to wall coalition” of Muslim countries, including ones that don’t even have diplomatic relations with Israel, had sent them secret messages expressing their support for military action against Iran. If a scenario unfolds where Israel attacks Iran with the Arabs secretly assisting, expect those same Arab regimes to viciously condemn the attacks and express support for a UN condemnation. They’ll express their solidarity with Iran, and should Israeli forces cross into their territory, there might be obligatory gunfire upon them that will conveniently miss to show how their sovereignty was violated. The Arab governments will try to escape the wrath of Iran and their angry populations, but will smile behind closed doors.
Comments