Unenriched Uranium

This is at least mildly encouraging:

Intelligence analysts believe that Iran is encountering technical difficulties in mastering the complex process of uranium enrichment. That means the West may have a bit more time than previously expected to pursue a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear standoff.

The problem, according to intelligence officials, is that the centrifuges that are supposed to enrich uranium are overheating. Some are breaking down and must be replaced. As a result, Iran has not ramped up its enrichment effort as quickly as analysts had expected.

This assessment is based on recent conversations with analysts from several Western nations that are watching the Iranian program closely, and on an unpublished report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that was completed on August 31. To me, it's the equivalent of adding some extra time to the clock in a tense football game. The urgency remains, but there is an opportunity for a few additional plays before the game is over.

"There's time, purely from the point of view of the technical development of the threat, to let diplomacy play out in the case of Iran," says Harvard professor Ashton B. Carter, who closely follows the Iranian nuclear issue.

Comments

[dearieme]

The British/Dutch/German centrifuge programme was a huge strategic blunder. previously, separating the isotopes by gas diffusion was very expensive, the kit was huge, and backward countries found it all too difficult. Then we produced a technology that's cheaper, smaller, and within the ability of Pakistan to steal and copy. Presumably it was meant to reduce the fuel costs for reactors that we didn't go on to build anyway. IDIOTS.

[P. Froward]

"There's time ... to let diplomacy play out in the case of Iran"

Er, right. I remember thinking that way about deadlines in college. "There's time", so do nothing at all until there *isn't* time.