Democracy in Iraq

Stephen Farrell in the Times looks at the run-up to elections in Iraq:

[W]hile some Sunnis believe that they must maximise their seats in the 275-seat National Assembly, observers believe that many have not adjusted to new political realities.

“I’m not sure whether they get it, that they can’t run this country like they ran it in the past,” a Western diplomat told The Times. “The problem is reaching out to the organised Sunni community, which identifies with various elements of the insurgency.”

While Sunnis debate participation, delay or boycott, Shias and Kurds are racing ahead with their own preparations for the vote, aware that the post-election government will write Iraq’s new constitution.

In the Shia south, Ayatollah al-Sistani’s edict urging all his followers to vote is plastered on walls, alongside slogans declaring: “A vote is worth more than gold.” In Najaf Sheikh Sadreddin al-Kubanji recently told worshippers: “This time we must take the place we deserve in the institutions of Iraq.”

The electoral outcome is impossible to predict, with no modern precedent and registration not even begun in Sunni areas plagued by violence. [...]

Data from US polling organisations indicates that secular parties — such as that of the interim Prime Minister, Iyad Allawi, the Iraqi National Accord — will take about 60 per cent and Islamic parties 40 per cent. But the dynamics are complex. One international observer said that while Kurds and Shias are united in seeking punishment of former Baathists — and will be heartened by the announcement yesterday that senior Saddam lieutenants will appear in court next week — the Kurds have sided with Sunnis in wanting to prevent Shia hegemony. “What you are seeing is very unusual in the Arab world. I don’t think I have seen anything this dynamic in terms of political negotiation and bartering,” one Western diplomat said. “Everything is wide open.”

Another complicating factor is that the Shia vote is not a monolithic bloc.

The well-organised Islamic parties — notably Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq — will undoubtedly mobilise their Iraqi voters, boosted, sceptics allege, by Iranian ringers. The council dismisses allegations of undue influence from Tehran, where many of its members were exiled during Saddam’s era.

Saad Jawwad, head of the council’s political office in Baghdad, said that its post-election priorities were to write a constitution, ensure participation by all and to work “with all Iraqis for the interests of Iraq”.

However, many resent the power of the Islamic groups.

Senior police officials and ordinary Shias in Basra told The Times that the factions’ shadowy militias regularly enforce their hardline brand of Islam by gun. Middle-class Iraqis accustomed to a secular life under Saddam have no desire to see Khomeini-style rule imported from Iran, and appear likely to vote in large numbers for secular parties such as Mr Allawi’s.

“I’m not going to vote for someone who is killing people just because they sell beer or music CDs. They are a bunch of thugs,” Abdul Sahib, a taxi driver, said.