He Has Lost His Aura

Much of the authority of the Islamic Republic lies in the mystique of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Has that now been sacrificed with his latest speech? Roger Cohen reports from the streets of Tehran:

Khamenei has taken a radical risk. He has factionalized himself, so losing the arbiter’s lofty garb, by aligning himself with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against both Mir Hussein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the revolution.

He has taunted millions of Iranians by praising their unprecedented participation in an election many now view as a ballot-box putsch. He has ridiculed the notion that an official inquiry into the vote might yield a different result. He has tried pathos and he has tried pounding his lectern. In short, he has lost his aura.

The taboo-breaking response was unequivocal. It’s funny how people’s obsessions come back to bite them. I’ve been hearing about Khamenei’s fear of “velvet revolutions” for months now. There was nothing velvet about Saturday’s clashes. In fact, the initial quest to have Moussavi’s votes properly counted and Ahmadinejad unseated has shifted to a broader confrontation with the regime itself.

Garbage burned. Crowds bayed. Smoke from tear gas swirled. Hurled bricks sent phalanxes of police, some with automatic rifles, into retreat to the accompaniment of cheers. Early afternoon rumors that the rally for Moussavi had been canceled yielded to the reality of violent confrontation.
I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering...

There were people of all ages. I saw an old man on crutches, middle-aged office workers and bands of teenagers. Unlike the student revolts of 2003 and 1999, this movement is broad.

“Can’t the United Nations help us?” one woman asked me. I said I doubted that very much. “So,” she said, “we are on our own.”

The world is watching, and technology is connecting, and the West is sending what signals it can, but in the end that is true. Iranians have fought this lonely fight for a long time: to be free, to have a measure of democracy.

And Marie Colvin in the Sunday Times:

If the clashes continue, Khamenei may call on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to quell dissent. But whether they will fight civilians is open to question. They are charged with protecting the revolution, not the supreme leader. Some are loyal to Hashemi Rafsanjani, the powerful former president who is backing Mousavi.

Last week one young member of the Revolutionary Guard said as he watched the demonstrators: “I will not be able to fire on these people. Maybe some of us will, but I won’t.”

Comments

[Jussef Abu gosh]

Can you please prove to me that Roger Cohen is actually reporting from the ground? His recent columns don´t convince me he`s actually left New York. After this past winter`s awful series of columns from Iran would The New York Times really send him back? He obliviously understands neither Iranian politics nor culture nor history. Why quote him?

[DaninVan]

Not an unreasonable pov, Jussaf. Here's one from centre stage...http://raymankojast.blogspot.com/

[Noga]

The point, I think, was to be sceptical regarding anything Roger Cohen writes about Iran, as, until very recently, he tended to show the regime in not unfavourable light:

http://blog.z-word.com/2009/03/roger-cohen-tame-jews-and-iran/

http://simplyjews.blogspot.com/2009/05/roger-cohen-ominous-fellow-traveler.html

http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/03/roger_cohen_with_rabbi_david_w.php

[Mick H]

I admit that I knew nothing about Roger Cohen prior to posting. I'm trusting that he didn't write this from his apartment in Manhattan.

[DaninVan]

"He obliviously (sic)understands neither Iranian politics nor culture nor history. Why quote him?"

Lol...I missed that on the first read. Good one, Jussaf!

[Mick H]

Not sure that was deliberate, but we'll let it pass...

[Noga]

In fairness to Roger Cohen, I believe he is in Iran. A couple of nights ago, Charlie Rose on his PBS show spoke to him for five minutes on the phone and he was then in Tehran.

[poohpooh]

This morning, I heard a journalist talk about the present situation concerning the difficulties gathering news. Roger Cohen`s name was mentioned in regard to unknown whereabouts of foreigon journalist. Whether he was in fact in Iran remains unclear to me. Roger Cohen`s new columns aren´t more than melodramatic scenes which don´t appear realistic in my opinion. Why would The New York Times send him back to Tehran after his first series of columns about the country confuses me. It´s good to know a PBS show can still afford to make a long distance call.